I guess the question to ask is who will win the election if voters decide based on which candidate they expect to do better in handling the issues? I came across a new research study that addresses this question.
The result: historically, voters chose the candidate they expected to do the best job in dealing with the issues facing the country. For 2008, the approach predicts Barack Obama as the election winner.
Read more about it at: http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/index.php/pollyblog/3/92-do-americans-vote-for-the-best-candidate.html
The PollyVote (www.pollyvote.com) combines forecasts from different methods and provides a singe prediction for the election outcome.
It has provided near-perfect predictions for 2004.